055 FXUS66 KPQR 131003 AFDPQR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 302 AM PDT MON OCT 13 2008 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK PACIFIC FRONTS MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN AT TIMES. && .SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WILL FLATTEN AND PUSH INLAND TODAY. SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION TYPE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT BRUSHES BY TO THE N. ALREADY SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT ASTORIA AS WELL AS HOQUIAM TO OUR N. A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SE INTO THE N PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT FOR A THREAT OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN. THE FRONT FALLS APART OVER THE AREA ON TUE...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED RAIN ON THE COAST RANGE...WILLAPA HILLS...AND CASCADES. SOME CLOUD BREAKS TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A LITTLE COOLER MINIMUM TEMPS AND SOME FOG FORMATION LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS GFS REMAINS ON ITS OWN SHOWING ANOTHER WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT HOLDING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH WED NIGHT...AS WELL AS NAM AND CANADIAN GLOBAL. STILL...PRUDENCE DICTATED ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER GFS TIMING. RW .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A FEW IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A RATHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO SWING A TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC FRIDAY AND ADVANCES A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS ARE NOT WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MID-RANGE MODELS...BUT ALL POINT TO A WET WEEKEND AND A CHANGE TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROWN && .AVIATION...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW LATER TODAY. COASTAL AREAS...MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. INLAND...LIKELY TO HAVE MVFR CIGS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF KSLE THIS MORNING. LESS CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS TRENDING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 20-22Z THEN TREND TO VFR. && .MARINE...WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING WITH FOLLOWING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRES REBUILDS OFFSHORE BY TUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS WED. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR LOW WATER AROUND THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER HARBORS IN THE WILLAMETTE AND COLUMBIA RIVERS. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.