Overview
March was a very warm and dry month. Every weather station
in Oregon (at least, as far as we know) reported above-normal
temperatures and below-normal precipitation. Water supply folks
became a bit concerned about summer water supply because the warm
temperatures caused an earlier than average beginning to the spring
snow melt. The April 1 snowpack was generally below average in
Oregon, compared with well above average on March 1.
Table 1 is a summary of monthly
averages and totals at selected stations throughout the state.
Table 2 lists daily temperatures
and precipitation for most of the locations listed in Table
1. In Table 3, monthly and
seasonal precipitation totals throughout the state are listed. Figure
1 shows
the percentage of seasonal precipitation statewide.
Basin Summary
Here is a summary of precipitation, water supply, and snow pack as of the end of the month, by river basin:
|
|
Snow |
|
|
||||
| BASIN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| OWYHEE | 23 |
94 |
95 |
67 |
127 |
87 |
-0.5 |
| MALHEUR | 25 |
82 |
100 |
83 |
76 |
48 |
-0.1 |
| GRAND RONDE, POWDER, BURNT | 28 |
86 |
97 |
86 |
103 |
77 |
-0.5 |
| UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA, WILLOW | 26 |
92 |
100 |
70 |
115 |
95 |
0.4 |
| UPPER JOHN DAY | 28 |
93 |
95 |
66 |
111 |
87 |
0.6 |
| UPPER DESCHUTES, CROOKED | 32 |
96 |
94 |
100 |
64 |
53 |
0.5 |
| LOWER DESCHUTES, HOOD RIVER | 36 |
97 |
91 |
109 |
94 |
70 |
-0.4 |
| WILLAMETTE | 37 |
95 |
92 |
99 |
61 |
85 |
0.5 |
| ROGUE, UMPQUA | 39 |
96 |
96 |
108 |
73 |
84 |
0.3 |
| KLAMATH | 46 |
98 |
94 |
99 |
75 |
70 |
-1.2 |
| LAKE COUNTY, GOOSE LAKE | 45 |
97 |
89 |
83 |
99 |
62 |
0.2 |
| HARNEY | 25 |
80 |
103 |
72 |
106 |
83 |
0.5 |
| NORTH COAST | 42 |
91 |
n.a |
n.a |
57 |
81 |
-0.5 |
| SOUTH COAST | 44 |
91 |
n.a |
n.a. |
54 |
87 |
-0.6 |
Forecasts
The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) forecasts for April-June appear below. Temperatures for Oregon (and all of the West) are likely to be above normal, while precipitation probabilities are above normal except for southern Oregon, where near normal seems most likely. CPC also says:
The outlook for April through June 2004 calls for better than
average odds of above average temperatures over the western states
from Oregon and south- Western Washington southeastward through
the southwest to west Texas... South Texasand southern Louisiana.
An enhanced chance of above average temperatures is also expected
for southern Florida and most of Alaska. This is supported both
by recent trends and the circulation patterns predicted by the
climate models. Long-term trends and several climate models support
a better than average chance of above median precipitation for
much of the Pacific Northwest.
Oregon Climate Service predicts normal temperatures and below-normal
precipitation for April. For the three-month period April-June
we predict normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation.
My colleague Wolf Read has been compiling a climatology of significant
wind events in the Pacific Northwest. His Web site has a wealth
of wind storm information. Below is a synopsis.
The Storm King
Some Historical Weather Events in the Pacific Northwest
compiled by
Wolf Read, Climatologist I, Oregon Climate Service
See online at http://www.oregonstate.edu/~readw/
Disclaimer: This is a personal website; therefore the opinions
expressed herein are my own. Please do not assume that these opinions
are those of the Oregon Climate Service or Oregon State University.
At some point in the relatively near future, a streamlined version
of the inforamtion on this website will be ported to the Oregon
Climate Service server.
Left: Infrared satellite image, March 20,
1995, 7 a.m. PST
This bad boy compelled the National Weather Service, Portland, to post this warning at 10 PM PST March 19, 1995:
" ..HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
"HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OREGON COAST.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BECOME 35 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH IN THE NORTH AND NEAR 90 MPH IN THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO 40 MPH AT
SEA LION CAVES...59 MPH AT GOLD BEACH...AND 94 MPH AT CAPE BLANCO."
The above storm is a very potent form of midlatitude cyclone.
Many have struck the West Coast within the relatively short period
of meteorlogical record. These systems can match a Category 3
hurricane in both minimum central pressures and sustained wind
speeds. Such storms have a reach far beyond that of a typical
hurricane: they can throw a cold rain into the Alaska Panhandle
while at the same time pummel the San Francisco Bay Area with
a warm, saturated gale. These tempests are killers, and can cause
damage into the hundreds of millions, even billions. The focus
of these web pages is on midlatitude cyclones; though, as weather
and climate contain varied and diverse phenomena, other types
of events are also examined.
This website is here to dispell certain weather myths. There seems to be an idea that severe weather somehow doesn't strike the Pacific Northwest. This seems to be largely an eastern misconception. For example:
The March 12-13, 1993 "Storm of the Century" has been touted as the strongest extratropical storm to strike the United States in the 20th century. This appears wrong on a number of counts. An argument could be made that the great Columbus Day Storm of 1962 holds the "Storm of the Century" title, and for good reason. Sure, the 1993 storm produced more lowland snow; the Columbus Day Storm was a relatively warm system and snow just didn't happen, save maybe at the highest elevations. However, let's talk wind. Wind generally causes more damage than snow. Sure, when snow gets deep enough, it can become a problem for roofs. However, for much of the region that saw snow during the 1993 event, accumulation just didn't reach such proportions; 6-10" was common.
Of the storms on record, only eastern hurricanes, possibly some wake low events, and some thundergusts match the strength of winds reported during the Columbus Day Storm. I checked the Storm Data for the March 1993 event. The supposed "Storm of the Century" just doesn't come close to the peak gusts officially recorded during the Columbus Day Storm. Generally, for March 1993 the peaks were in the range of 50 to 70 mph, with a few ranging up to 75 to 83 mph. Most of the latter readings happened at coastal stations. For the Columbus Day Storm, official wind gusts reached 127 mph in the Willamette Valley. Many stations had gusts between 75 and 100 mph, and this includes quite a few locations that were inland (including Corvallis). So much for the storm of 1993!
One of the main foci of the case studies below is to demonstrate severe weather events in the Pacific Northwest.
I'm slowly adding to these pages whenever I have the time. Just click on the links below to see official data, my own records and anecdotes, photos, and more, though each account may not have everything. Here are the storms selected so far:
Storms (in Chronological Order)
| The Storm King of January 9, 1880 | The January 29, 1921 Olympic Blowdown |
| The Major Windstorm of October 21, 1934 | The Classic Sou'wester of December 21, 1940 |
| The Double Windstorms of October 26-27, 1950 | The Major Windstorm of December 4, 1951 |
| The Classic Sou'wester of April 14, 1957 | The Intense Cyclone of November 3, 1958 |
| The SW OR Windstorm of February 24, 1961 | The Mid-Spring Gale of April 27, 1962 |
| The Columbus Day "Big Blow" of 1962 | The Powerful Spring Gale of March 27, 1963 |
| The Strong October 2, 1967 Storm King "Jr." | The Big Sou'wester of March 26, 1971 |
| The Sudden Windstorm of March 1, 1974 | The Intense Cyclone of November 9-10, 1975 |
| The December 15, 1977 Puget Sound Cyclone | The Kitsap Blowdown of February 13, 1979 |
| The Double Windstorms of November 13-15, 1981 | The Gale of December 21, 1982 |
| The Thanksgiving Day Storm of 1983 | The Surprise Gale of March 16, 1984 |
| The Storm Train of January 1986 | The Northerly Gale of December 1990 |
| The Inauguration Day Storm of 1993 | The November 15, 1994 South Valley Windstorm |
| The Major Windstorm of December 12, 1995 | The Windstorm of February 6, 1999 |
| The Sou'wester of January 15-16, 2000 | The NW OR Squall Line of December 13, 2001 |
| The February 7, 2002 South Valley Surprise | The Storms of December 14-16, 2002 |
| The December 16, 2002 South Valley Storm | The December 27, 2002 Minor Windstorm |
| The January 29-30, 2004 Minor Windstorm |
Oregon Climate Service
George H. Taylor, Oregon State Climatologist
Wayne P. Gibson, Programmer/GIS mngr.
Mandy Matzke, Research Assistant/Manager of Data Services
Melanie Mitchell, Undergraduate Assistant
Wolf Read, Undergraduate Assistant
Emily Gibson, Student Assistant
Cadee Hale, Publications Assistant
Kelsey Kuykendall, Undergraduate Assistant
Oregon Climate Service, Strand 316,Phone: (541) 737-5705 Oregon State University Fax: (541) 737-5710 Corvallis, Oregon 97331 E-mail: oregon@oce.orst.edu Web: http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu
