Oregon Climate Service, January 2004

Overview

January began very cold, as Arctic conditions which had gripped Oregon in late December continued for the first several days of the month. The cold weather gave way to much milder, wet conditions by the end of the first week of the month. The remainder of the month was wetter than average in most of the state. Mountain snows piled up, bringing promise of more-than-adequate water conditions next summer.


Table 1 is a summary of monthly averages and totals at selected stations throughout the state. Table 2 lists daily temperatures and precipitation for most of the locations listed in Table 1. In Table 3, monthly and seasonal precipitation totals throughout the state are listed. Figure 1 shows the percentage of seasonal precipitation statewide.

Basin Summary

Here is a summary of precipitation, water supply, and snow pack as of the end of the month, by river basin:

Precipitation
  Snow

Stream Flow

 SWSI
BASIN

(1)

(2)

 (3)

 (4)

 (5)

 (6)

(7)
OWYHEE 123 81 108 128 24 37 -1.4
MALHEUR 157 103 108 125 21 31 -0.9
GRAND RONDE, POWDER, BURNT 154 106 104 113 55 60 -0.9
UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA, WILLOW 139 112 111 111 115 94 +0.1
UPPER JOHN DAY 124 107 102 116 76 59 +0.4
UPPER DESCHUTES, CROOKED 115 109 105 125 48 49 +0.1
LOWER DESCHUTES, HOOD RIVER 124 111 105 135 66 64 -0.1
WILLAMETTE 118 107 105 127 111 86 0.0
ROGUE, UMPQUA 113 107 98 131 98 81 -0.4
KLAMATH 129 104 97 126 56 65 -1.8
LAKE COUNTY, GOOSE LAKE 93 73 95 123 18 28 -0.4
HARNEY 94 85 101 120 33 44 -0.3
NORTH COAST 122 103 n.a n.a 46 59 +0.2
SOUTH COAST 118 110 n.a n.a. 109 88 +0.3

n.a. Not available
(1) Percent of normal January precipitation, from NOAA Cooperative sites
(2) Percent of normal seasonal precipitation (since Oct. 1), from NOAA Cooperative sites
(3) Percent of normal seasonal precipitation, from Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) SNOTEL sites
(4) Percent of normal snow water equivalent, from NRCS SNOTEL sites
(5) Percent of normal January stream flow, from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
(6) Percent of normal seasonal stream flow (since Oct. 1), from USGS
(7) Surface Water Supply Index, from NRCS (-4 = very dry, 0 = normal, +4 = very wet)

Forecasts

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) forecasts for February-April appear below. Temperatures for Oregon (and all of the West) are likely to be above normal, while precipitation probabilities are above normal for northern Oregon and near normal for the southern half. CPC also says:

The outlook for February through April 2004 calls for better than average odds of above normal temperatures over most of the western half of the nation and Alaska, supported both by recent trends and the circulation patterns predicted by the climate models. The climate models favor a circulation pattern that elevates the chances of below normal temperatures in the southeastern U.S. except for southern Florida. The chance for below-median precipitation is greater than average over the interior southwest - and along the eastern Gulf Coast and northern Florida. Above-median precipitation has enhanced likelihood in portions of the Pacific Northwest

 

Oregon Climate Service predicts normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for February. For the three-month period February-April we predict below-normal temperatures and normal precipitation. We still expect some extreme weather this year, possibly a large wind storm.

ENSO Update (from CPC, issued 2/5/04)

Sea surface temperatures remained warmer than average in the central and western equatorial Pacific and near average in the eastern equatorial Pacific during January. Equatorial ocean surface temperatures greater than +0.5°C (~1°F) above average were found between Indonesia and 165°W, and departures greater than +1°C were found between 160°E and 175°W. Since early December 2003, SST anomalies have decreased in all of the Niño regions.

A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate near neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through March 2004. Thereafter, the forecasts show increasing spread and greater uncertainty.

Prehistoric man began global warming

Associated Press, December 11 2003

Measurements of ancient air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice offers evidence that humans have been changing the global climate since thousands of years before the industrial revolution. From 8000 years ago, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide began to rise as humans started clearing forests, planting crops and raising livestock, a scientist said on Tuesday. Methane levels started increasing 3000 years later.

The combined increases of the two greenhouse gases implicated in global warming were slow but steady and staved off what should have been a period of significant natural cooling, said Bill Ruddiman, emeritus professor at the University of Virginia. The changes also disrupted regular patterns that dominated the 400,000 years of atmospheric history that scientists have teased from samples of ancient ice.

"You have 395,000 years of history, which sets some rules, and 5000 years that break those rules," Professor Ruddiman said.

He briefed reporters on his theory at the autumn meeting of the American Geophysical Union on Tuesday. Further details appear in the December issue of the journal Climatic Change.

Previously, scientists assumed widely it was only with the onset of the factory age that human activity had any significant effect on the global climate. The prehistoric changes in carbon dioxide and methane levels have been noted before but were attributed to natural causes, Professor Ruddiman said.

"It's a great new idea we need to talk about and evaluate," said Bette Otto-Bliesner, a paleoclimate expert at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research, who was not connected with the research.

Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and methane naturally fluctuate, in part because of changes in the orbit of the Earth and the resulting variations in the amounts of sunlight. But human activity apparently thwarted expected decreases in the atmospheric concentrations of both gases. Leading the change was the revolutionary adoption, across both Europe and Asia, of agriculture and animal husbandry, Professor Ruddiman said.

Analysis of air trapped in ice cores drilled from the Antarctic ice sheet show anomalous increases in carbon dioxide levels beginning 8000 years ago - just as crop lands began to replace previously forested regions across Asia and Europe. About 5000 years ago, the ice cores reflect a similarly anomalous rise in methane levels, this time tied to increased emissions from flooded rice fields, as well as burgeoning numbers of livestock, Professor Ruddiman said.

The prehistoric practices apparently overrode a build-up of ice that models predict should have occurred from 5000 years ago.

January Snow Event
January was a snowy month throughout Oregon. The table below lists snowfall totals for January 2004, monthly normals and record monthly totals for selected Oregon cooperative stations (units: inches).

Station Number January, 2004 Monthly Total  1971-2000 Monthly Normal  January Record
Arlington 0265 10.2 2.5 25.0
Barnes Station 0501 22.0 10.0 34.0
Buncom 1149 6.8 1.8 27.3
Cave Junction 1448 12.5 6.3 30.6
Chemult 1546 43.3 32.9 115.0
Chiloquin 1574 42.3 7.3 56.5
Clatskanie 1643 6.5 3.7 68.5
Condon 1765 26.5 6.0 43.1
Corvallis 1862 5.8 1.1 51.9
Crater Lake 1946 138.6 83.6 313.0
Dallas 2112 9.5 0.6 68.0
Detroit Dam 2292 16.4 3.3 78.6
Drewsey 2415 23.5 24.4 37.0
Dufur 2440 21.0 7.3 61.0
Elgin 2597 32.8 14.4 43.1
Forest Grove 2997 8.5 2.6 58.8
Government Camp 3402 55.0 61.6 155.0
Halfway 3604 44.7 24.1 68.5
Haskins Dam 3705 20.3 4.8 73.0
Heppner 3827 18.0 4.8 36.5
Ironside 4175 16.0 11.1 37.0
Laurel Mountain 4776 25.0 22.0 77.0
Madras 5142 16.8 5.2 22.3
Malheur Exp. Stn. 5160 13.0 6.9 22.5
Marion Forks 5221 50.5 19.9 195.9
Monument 5711 11.0 5.2 15.5
Moro 5734 18.0 5.9 54.0
Nyssa 6179 15.7 6.0 24.0
Parkdale 6466 46.0 14.7 39.0
Pendleton Exp. Stn. 6540 7.8 5.6 25.0
Prineville 6883 7.5 2.8 29.4
Santiam Jct. 7554 50.0 53.9 110.0
Seneca 7675 23.3 9.7 51.0
Three Lynx 8466 14.0 5.7 98.0
Toketee Falls 8536 19.5 8.5 74.5
Wickiup Reservoir 9316 31.5 18.8 68.3
Williams 9390 8.5 1.9 50.5


Oregon Climate Service

George H. Taylor, Oregon State Climatologist

Wayne P. Gibson, Programmer/GIS mngr.

Mandy Matzke, Research Assistant/Manager of Data Services

Melanie Mitchell, Undergraduate Assistant

Wolf Read, Undergraduate Assistant

Emily Gibson, Student Assistant

Cadee Hale, Publications Assistant

Kelsey Kuykendall, Undergraduate Assistant



Oregon Climate Service, Strand 316,                                 Phone: (541) 737-5705  
Oregon State University                                                      Fax: (541) 737-5710   
Corvallis, Oregon  97331                                                     E-mail: oregon@oce.orst.edu   
                                                                             Web: http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu