Overview

February was characterized by generally near-normal temperatures, with about an equal number of above- and below-normal observations; generally speaking, temperatures were below normal east of the Cascades and above normal to the west. Monthly precipitation also saw an east-west contrast, with the west side near or slightly below normal and the east side mostly above normal.


Table 1 is a summary of monthly averages and totals at selected stations throughout the state. Table 2 lists daily temperatures and precipitation for most of the locations listed in Table 1. In Table 3, monthly and seasonal precipitation totals throughout the state are listed. Figure 1 shows the percentage of seasonal precipitation statewide.

Basin Summary

Here is a summary of precipitation, water supply, and snow pack as of the end of the month, by river basin:

	Precipitation			Snow	Stream Flow		SWSI
BASIN	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
OWYHEE	111	78	108	129	44	40	-0.7
MALHEUR	142	104	107	127	29	31	-0.4
GRAND RONDE, POWDER, BURNT	113	105	103	109	71	63	-0.8
UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA, WILLOW	134	118	105	108	74	87	+0.2
UPPER JOHN DAY	131	111	103	118	88	70	+0.6
UPPER DESCHUTES, CROOKED	132	113	102	125	48	49	+0.3
LOWER DESCHUTES, HOOD RIVER	87	106	96	123	67	65	-0.4
WILLAMETTE	86	102	99	124	105	90	0.5
ROGUE, UMPQUA	106	107	105	146	105	87	-0.1
KLAMATH	141	111	103	137	76	68	-1.4
LAKE COUNTY, GOOSE LAKE	160	89	101	131	38	37	-0.1
HARNEY	83	73	113	125	95	69	0.1
NORTH COAST	70	97	n.a	n.a	78	86	-0.2
SOUTH COAST	111	110	n.a	n.a.	102	94	-0.4

n.a. Not available
(1) Percent of normal February precipitation, from NOAA Cooperative sites
(2) Percent of normal seasonal precipitation (since Oct. 1), from NOAA Cooperative sites
(3) Percent of normal seasonal precipitation, from Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) SNOTEL sites
(4) Percent of normal snow water equivalent, from NRCS SNOTEL sites
(5) Percent of normal February stream flow, from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
(6) Percent of normal seasonal stream flow (since Oct. 1), from USGS
(7) Surface Water Supply Index, from NRCS (-4 = very dry, 0 = normal, +4 = very wet)

Forecasts

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) forecasts for March-May appear below. Temperatures for Oregon (and all of the West) are likely to be above normal, while precipitation probabilities are below normal for southwest Oregon and near normal for the remainder. CPC also says:

The outlook for March through May 2004 calls for better than average odds of above normal temperatures over the western states from Oregon southward through the southwest to West Texas and central and eastern Alaska. This is both by recent trends and the circulation patterns predicted by the climate models. Long-term trends also favor a greater than average chance of below-normal temperatures in the northern plains. The chance for below-median precipitation is greater than average over California and western Nevada and in the Florida peninsula.

Oregon Climate Service predicts above-normal temperatures and normal precipitation for March. For the three-month period March-May we predict normal temperatures and precipitation.

Earl Stewart – 78 Years of Weather Observations

Earl Stewart was a teenager, and like many boys his age was sometimes tempted to get into trouble. His father, Clint, was worried about Earl, and decided to give him a responsibility in hopes of “keeping him occupied.” Clint, the county agricultural inspector in Lane County, Oregon, volunteered to be Cottage Grove’s official weather observer. Almost immediately, he turned the job over to 15 year old Earl. The year was 1917.

Every evening at 6 p.m., Earl went into the back yard, and recorded the pervious day’s maximum and minimum temperatures and total precipitation. After carefully writing down the values on the log sheet, he reset the thermometers by shaking them. His friend Lloyd Griggs recently told me, “when I think about Earl I can still see him shaking those thermometers. He really got into it!”

Day after day, year after year, Earl faithfully recorded the weather readings. He seldom traveled, except to go hunting once or twice a year. He recruited a friend to stand in for him as observer on those days.

In January, 1930, a very cold Arctic air mass reached Oregon. The Climatological Data publication for that month reads, “A cold period which set in on the 5th and continued until near the close was the most persistent since statewide records began in 1890, and resulted in the lowest mean temperatures ever recorded for any month in Oregon.” Rivers and ponds froze over. Low temperatures recorded at Cottage Grove (by Earl, of course) in the 6-day stretch of January 9-14 were 19, 15, 10, 12, 8 and 18, respectively. Earl, an accomplished ice skater, decided to go skating on a frozen pond.

As he circled the pond, Earl noticed a young lady who was having great difficulty standing. He skated over and asked if she needed help; “oh, yes,” she said. Her name was Dorothy, and she had the same last name – Stewart. Dorothy recounted later,

“ It was a great thrill when a young man skated up to me and asked if I would like to skim over the ice with him. I was delighted to be held up by his strong arms and go sailing across the ice in fine fashion. I felt very secure in his arms and completely thrilled to have the undivided attention of such a mature and handsome man.”
Earl was nearly 13 years older than Dorothy, and was cautious about asking her out. Several months later, however, he saw her in town and asked her to go riding in his new speedboat. Since Earl had a fine reputation in Cottage Grove, her parents allowed Dorothy to go.

They dated off and on for the next six years, and Earl eventually asked Dorothy to marry him. But they had acute religious and philosophical differences, according to Dorothy. She was from a very devout Pentecostal family, while Earl cared little about religion. Ultimately she decided that their differences were too great and turned him down. Later she met and married Larry Chapman. They were married for 46 years and had three children. Larry died of cancer in the early 1980s.

Not long after Dorothy broke off their relationship, Earl had a dream that Dorothy was coming toward him in a field, wishing to reconcile. He treasured the memory of this dream in his heart, and believed it would happen in seven years.
In 1962, the Columbus Day storm tore through Cottage Grove (as it did the rest of the Northwest – local winds exceeded 100 mph) and decimated the pear orchard on the 220 acre Stewart farm. Earl decided to switch from pears to cattle. He kept on observing the weather.

After Larry’s death, Dorothy returned to Cottage Grove. One day she drove by Earl’s house with her friend Ona Wade. Seeing Earl’s pickup, she decided to stop and say hello to him. He was clearing a ditch with a shovel, and to get to where he was Dorothy had to cross a field – just like in his dream nearly 50 years earlier! Dorothy said to me, “instead of 7 years, it was more like 7 times 7.” Small detail.

Earl Stewart’s home, where he took daily weather observations

Earl had never married, and still loved Dorothy; he called her “the only girl I ever loved.” They began to date again, and during their 15-month courtship, “Earl accepted the Lord in his heart.” A few months later, on Valentine’s Day, Earl came with flowers and stammered “Will you, will you, will you marry me?” Dorothy accepted. He was 80 years old. Earl continued to observe the weather.

In 1992, Earl was given an award by the National Weather Service. It commemorated 75 years of weather observations, and was named the “Earl Stewart Award.” I was among those invited to present Earl with the award, and it was an honor to meet him and his charming wife. So far, Earl is the only recipient of “his” award.

In 1996, Earl suffered a massive stroke, and died the next day. His “years of service” streak ended at 78. I suspect his record will never be broken.

Recently I visited Dorothy in Cottage Grove. Now 90, she retains the grace and charm that captivated Earl when he met her 74 years ago. She generously allowed me to borrow some materials, including books and pictures, that describe their lives. I am pleased to share them with you here.

Earl and Dorothy Stewart

by: George H. Taylor
March, 2004

Oregon Climate Service

George H. Taylor, Oregon State Climatologist

Wayne P. Gibson, Programmer/GIS mngr.

Mandy Matzke, Research Assistant/Manager of Data Services

Melanie Mitchell, Undergraduate Assistant

Wolf Read, Undergraduate Assistant

Emily Gibson, Student Assistant

Cadee Hale, Publications Assistant

Kelsey Kuykendall, Undergraduate Assistant

Oregon Climate Service, Strand 316,                             Phone: (541) 737-5705  
Oregon State University                                                      Fax: (541) 737-5710   
Corvallis, Oregon  97331                                                     E-mail: oregon@oce.orst.edu   
                                                                             Web: http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu