Overview

March was very wet, with plenty of rainy days. A number of locations set new records for most rainy days in March. The wet conditions helped make up for a rather disappointing snow pack.

Table 1 is a summary of monthly averages and totals at selected stations throughout the state. Table 2 lists daily temperatures and precipitation for most of the locations listed in Table 1. In Table 3, monthly and seasonal precipitation totals throughout the state are listed. Figure 1 shows the percentage of normal precipitation for the Water Year.

Basin Summary

Here is a summary of precipitation, water supply, and snow pack as of the end of the month, by river basin:

	Precipitation			Snow	Stream Flow		SWSI
BASIN	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
OWYHEE	55	65	71	44	8	23	-1.3
MALHEUR	88	80	83	49	n.a.	n.a.	-1.9
GRAND RONDE, POWDER, BURNT	185	104	90	74	122	91	-1.3
UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA, WILLOW	95	104	93	64	169	108	-1.0
UPPER JOHN DAY	115	88	82	53	73	64	-0.6
UPPER DESCHUTES, CROOKED	95	81	82	69	75	60	-0.8
LOWER DESCHUTES, HOOD RIVER	191	99	82	59	124	74	-0.6
WILLAMETTE	157	98	83	58	143	79	+0.5
ROGUE, UMPQUA	117	104	88	59	93	85	+0.6
KLAMATH	115	87	81	58	56	70	-1.0
LAKE COUNTY, GOOSE LAKE	135	93	79	59	53	58	n.a.
HARNEY	105	78	73	36	30	49	-1.2
NORTH COAST	160	94	n.a.	n.a.	194	92	-0.7
SOUTH COAST	103	92	n.a.	n.a.	116	102	+0.6

n.a. Not available

(1) Percent of normal March precipitation, from NOAA Cooperative sites
(2) Percent of normal seasonal precipitation (since Oct. 1), from NOAA Cooperative sites
(3) Percent of normal seasonal precipitation, from Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) SNOTEL sites
(4) Percent of normal snow water equivalent, from NRCS SNOTEL sites
(5) Percent of normal March stream flow, from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
(6) Percent of normal seasonal stream flow (since Oct. 1), from USGS
(7) Surface Water Supply Index, from NRCS (-4 = very dry, 0 = normal, +4 = very wet)

Forecast

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts above-average temperatures for March as well as for the three-month period ending in May. There are increased chances of below normal precipitation in western Oregon and normal precipitation in eastern Oregon. Oregon Climate Service predicts average temperatures and above-average precipitation for March as well as for the three months.

Greenhouse gases not culprit, study suggests

Joseph Brean
National Post
April 8, 2003

The global warming trend of the 20th century is less extreme than the pre-industrial climate change of the Middle Ages, says a new analysis that challenges the common wisdom that greenhouse gases drive up temperatures.

A Harvard University-based team compared the results of 240 studies of climate history to show widespread and steady temperature variations happened even before the Industrial Revolution introduced carbon emissions into the atmosphere.

The team's reconstruction of 1,000 years worth of climate fluctuations -- from the Medieval Warm Period through the Little Ice Age and into the current temperature spike -- suggests policymakers should use "strong caution in finding a human fingerprint" in climate change, said Willie Soon, a lead author on the paper and an astrophysicist with the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

His analysis of data from tree rings, glacier movement, lake sediments, fossils and even written records shows that, from about 800 to 1300, global temperatures rose by a degree or two -- enough for vineyards to flourish in England and for Vikings to establish colonies in Greenland, later abandoned when temperatures dropped and ice cover spread. Even in the 20th century, when temperatures rose more sharply than ever, most of the increase occurred before 1960, by which time only about one-fifth of the century's carbon dioxide emissions had been released, Dr. Soon said. When more emissions followed, the temperature rise did not quicken.

"It points to the natural variability of the climate system," he said. "It's quite likely [some of the warming] is simply due to the dimming and brightening of the sun."

A Canadian climate change scientist suggested the U.S. research was being presented as "a cop- out" for not acting to mitigate the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. Canada has ratified the international Kyoto Accord on climate change, while the United States has said it will not.

The new study, to be published later this week in the journal Energy and Environment, is the latest salvo from the political right against environmentalists in the battle over how to understand rising global temperatures -- as a natural climactic blip or as the early stages of a human-made environmental catastrophe.

The study, both of whose lead authors have criticized the Kyoto accord, was funded by various scientific agencies but also by the American Petroleum Institute.
One of its authors, Sallie Baliunas, published an article last month likening environmentalists to medieval witch hunters, since both hold false beliefs about humans affecting the weather. Then, it was witches causing colder winters, now it is the greenhouse gas emissions of industry causing warmer summers, she wrote.

Dr. Soon said their analysis revealed clear patterns of rising and falling temperature through the ages, especially one known as the Medieval Warm Period.

Climate change could dry Great Lakes
By Marcella S. Kreiter
UPI Chicago Bureau
April 8, 2003

CHICAGO, April 8 (UPI) -- The Great Lakes states will look more like parts of the South and Southwest by the end of the century as a result of global warming, a report released Tuesday concludes. The changes will lead to hot, dry summers and severe flooding in the winter and spring, the report, by the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Ecological Society of America, predicts.

"This is the most comprehensive assessment on global warming and the impact on the Great Lakes ever done," said Dr. Peter Frumhoff of the Union of Concerned Scientists. The report forecasts within three decades summer in Illinois could feel more like Oklahoma and, by the end of the century, like eastern Texas. Toronto's climate will first begin to resemble New York and then warm until it is more akin to northern Virginia's.

Regionally, temperatures could increase as much as 18 degrees Fahrenheit in summer and 13 in winter. The result will be a longer growing season for farmers but 20 percent less soil moisture with attendant erosion, reduced yields and other problems.

"We may think we'll be able to take advantage of the warmer temperatures by going to the beach but the lake levels will be lower and there will be more beach closures," said Michelle Wander, a soil scientist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Donald Wuebbles, head of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at U. of I., discounted a recent Smithsonian Institution study that found temperatures were warmer during the Middle Ages in Europe than they are now, saying the scientists involved had not fully analyzed the data.

Wuebbles said looking at core ice and soil samples going back 1,000 years, there's no question the climate globally is warmer now than in any previous era.
"We are conducting the largest experiment in human history ... (by) increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide and other (greenhouse) gases," Wuebbles said. The action, he said, will not only have an impact on the climate but on human health as well.

The scientists are calling for a reduction in emissions of heat-trapping gases, minimization of pressures on ecosystems and planning for the impact of climatological changes. They also are pushing increased use of renewable energy sources including wind power and biomass to help reverse the increases.

Thirteen states -- Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Texas, Nevada, California, New Mexico and Arizona -- already have adopted measures specifying goals for renewable energy production. Four others -- Illinois, Vermont, Maryland and New York -- are considering similar legislation.

"Waiting 10 or more years to reduce emissions will increase the eventual severity, expense and likelihood of irreversible losses -- a terrible legacy to leave our children and grandchildren," Frumhoff, director of the Global Environment Program. "By acting now,
leaders and citizens can protect the rich natural heritage, vibrant economy and well-being of people and communities throughout the Great Lakes region."

The two-year study, "Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and Ecosystems," was conducted by 13 scientists from universities in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Toronto, using advanced models of the Earth's climate system. The study was presented at news conferences in Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Toronto and Madison, Wisconsin.

Oregon Climate Service

George H. Taylor, Oregon State Climatologist

Wayne P. Gibson, Programmer/GIS mngr.

Mandy Matzke, Research Assistant/Manager of Data Services

Kelly Jenson, Undergraduate Assistant

Melanie Mitchell, Student Assistant

Sandra Terra, Undergraduate Assistant

Oregon Climate Service, Strand 316,                                 Phone: (541) 737-5705  
Oregon State University                                                      Fax: (541) 737-5710   
Corvallis, Oregon  97331                                                     E-mail: oregon@oce.orst.edu   
                                                                             Web: http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu